The weak currency loses: the course becomes dependent on receipt to the country of foreign currency, starting unequal fight against it in the sphere of foreign economic activity and in the sphere of internal calculations that leads to negative consequences of a dollarization of economy. Such situation leads to strengthening of «currency nationalism».
— within a national monetary policy financial globalisation is shown in change of the purposes, channels of influence, tools.
The revealed problems give the grounds to allocate the following tendencies of development of a world financial system in globalisation:
— Strengthening of integration processes. To abolition of exclusive provision of dollar as the tool of the international liquidity, the country unites in integration groups.
The monopoly position of dollar in the international currency system started to be washed away. Signs of a diversification are observed in a state policy (modes of exchange rates and gold and foreign exchange reserves), and in behavior of the world currency markets.
— New world infrastructure. As multinational corporations operate commodity, production, information streams, it will allow to reduce the importance of financial streams in the future. Ideological convergence of the countries of the former USSR and EU, unwillingness of Germany, Japan, the USA to accept actions to change financial policy sooner or later will lead to emergence of new supranational institute.
— Replacement of the international settlement mechanism. The mechanism leaning on national currency of one country — the USA ceased to correspond to requirements of the modern world economy.
— protection of uniformity of economic space and strengthening of national currency is necessary for the countries at national level in globalisation.
After more than two decades of exceptional growth, financial institutions are adapting to a new environment of tighter credit and slower economic growth, increased government intervention and a threat to the previous pace of globalisation.
Interventionist regulatory reform: Global policy-makers have committed to a new regulatory framework that is expected to expand the scope of regulated entities, increase global regulatory coordination and constrain the growth prospects of incumbent financial institutions.
Back to basics in banking: Banks of all types have begun the process of repairing their balance sheets through higher liquidity and capital ratios, coupled with reduced reliance on short-term wholesale funding. Re-regulated banks are likely to become more like utilities as they refocus on core competencies. Moreover, bank strategies are less likely to overlap as individual competitive advantages are reaffirmed.
Restructuring in alternatives: Alternatives players have suffered in the current financial crisis, from both deleveraging and market turmoil. Recent hedge fund losses have called into question the durability of absolute-return products. Private equity firms have to balance steering levered portfolio companies through a severe downturn with the challenge of raising new capital to pursue upcoming investment opportunities when many among their investor base are severely limited in terms of capacity to commit capital.
Meanwhile, many investors are shifting their attention to low-cost indexation strategies and «new beta» asset classes. As a result, «unconstrained» providers of capital — such as family offices and sovereign funds — may gain the upper hand.
A tale of two insurers: The fortunes of the insurance industry are broadly split between property & casualty versus life insurers on the one hand, and North America versus Europe on the other. While some organizations will be forced to focus on survival, many will be able to capitalize on the emergence of new acquisition opportunities, continued demand for retirement products and an increased use of traditional insurance products to hedge risk, thereby strengthening their underlying businesses.
O ver the longer term, a range of external forces and critical uncertainties will shape the future of the global financial system. D uring 2008, the World Economic Forum engaged over 250 financial executives, regulators, policy-makers and senior academics at eight different workshops to develop potential long-term evolutionary scenarios for the global financial system. T hese scenarios go beyond simply extending current trends and explicitly take into account critical uncertainties, potential discontinuities and system dynamics.
T hese scenarios can be used to support strategic decision-making and facilitate collaborative action. T he scenarios vary along two critical uncertainties: the pace of the ongoing geo-economic power shift from today’s advanced economies to the emerging world and the degree of international financial coordination. T hese critical uncertainties have been defined based on a survey of the World Economic Forum’s industry partners, interviews with leaders in the field, and extensive research.
Based on this analysis, four plausible and compelling views emerge about how the global financial system might evolve between now and the year 2020 (Figure 3.
1.1). Each of these scenarios take a myriad of underlying driving forces into account — such as the evolution of energy and commodity prices, global economic growth, fiscal policies, trade regimes, climate change, exchange rate policies, extremism, demographics and global wealth distribution.
Fig. 3.
1.1 — Developing scenario
Financial regionalism is a world in which post-crisis blame-shifting and the threat of further economic contagion create three major blocs on trade and financial policy, forcing global companies to construct tripartite strategies to operate globally.
Re-engineered Western-centrism is a highly coordinated and financially homogenous world that has yet to face up to the realities of shifting power and the dangers of regulating for the last crisis rather than the next.
Fragmented protectionism is a world characterized by division, conflict, currency controls and a race-to-the bottom dynamic that only serves to deepen the long-term effects of the financial crisis.
Rebalanced multilateralism is a world in which initial barriers to coordination and disagreement over effective risk management approaches are overcome in the context of rapidly shifting geo-economic power.
Each of these scenarios describes key forces and turning points that could fundamentally shape the governance and structure of the global financial system in the next decade. These scenarios are not designed to predict the future, but rather to explore the boundaries of the plausible, to stimulate strategic thinking and facilitate collaborative action between the various stakeholders
Beginning in 1990th the relation of the central banks of large economy to formation of currency reserves began to change. Before they bought only the most reliable state securities, now their attention involve also some other assets. The central banks in limited degree are practicing of investment funds, for which reliability and profitability of a portfolio are a complementary factors.
Two more trends accumulated on this process in current decade: a further diversification of reserves by types of assets and emergence of new institute of investors. Nowadays the Central Banks cease to be exclusive managers of foreign currency state reserves. A lot of countries national welfare funds are created. Countries with rich raw material resources, such funds are created to reduce dependence of public finances on fluctuations of the world prices and to create a reserve for future generations on a case of exhaustion of fields.
These funds can essentially influence an environment of the world financial markets, including demand in different currencies. Further their role only will amplify. At the same time funds will actively work over profitability of investments that lead reduce in US dollars demand.
" Fashion" on modes of exchange rates changed. Currency corridors didn’t justify themselves: the currencies closed in them became an easy mark of speculators. Therefore now the majority of the states practice rigid fixing of courses or swimming. Let’s remind that the volume and structure of currency reserves of this or that country depend on a mode of an exchange rate. Reserves, naturally, should collect in that currency to which the local monetary unit is adhered.
A ppeal of floating rates explained by fight of the governments against inflation which occurs in situation of deformed monetarist regularities. I t was enough for governments to constrain a rise in prices to supervise volume of monetary weight till the 1990th.
N ow in the majority of the countries it is not traced a dependence between dynamics of monetary weight and inflation. I n many cases inflation remains low at rapid growth of active money and on the contrary. T herefore more and more states pass to a direct targeting of inflation (when the target indicator of a prices rise is set for a year or for some years).
F loating rates assume smaller dependence of the monetary authorities on volume of the saved-up reserves. The need in large interventions for foreign currency (which always was US dollar) decreases.
It is possible to affirm that the European Central Bank won’t carry out currency interventions, selling euro and buying up dollars. China was advised to pass to more flexible exchange rates, namely to carry out revaluation. So, west countries urge successfully developing countries to be guided in economic policy not only national interests, but also interests of all world economy.
In future, strong American influence on a world financial system will remain owing to leading positions of the USA in world economy, their prevailing situation in the international movement of the capital and operations in the world financial market. All this predetermines saving of the provision of dollar as world key currency. At the same time dollar position will be influenced by pressure and difficulties caused by growth of economic force and influence of EU and uniform European currency. The competition between these two currencies with the assistance of yen, pound sterling and the Swiss franc will remain characteristic feature of a world currency financial system in the forthcoming years.
Foresaid allows coming to the following conclusions. First, based on mentioned problems we can see that the structure of a world financial system has serious problems and it is required adjustments. Secondly, definition of prospects of further development of a world financial system starts with its structural problems and the most probable scenarios of its development. The allocated tendencies are directed on correction of the listed structural problems and can be basis of decision-making by subjects of a world financial system. Reform and improvement of the international monetary system, with a broad-based international reserve currency system providing stability and certainty
3.2 Prospects of world currency system reforming
The analysis of problems of modern world currency system allows speaking about exhaustion of an existing currency and financial order and necessity of a new paradigm of the world monetary and credit regulation.
T he current financial crisis has triggered a fundamental review of the global financial system, in terms of regulation, the role of financial institutions, and the role of governments, and can be seen as an important inflection point. T he world is seeing an unwinding of global imbalances, and after more than two decades of exceptional growth, financial institutions are now adapting to a new environment of tighter credit and lower economic growth, increased government intervention and a threat to the previous pace of globalization. S tability of world currency system according to retrospective analysis depends on degree of compliance of its structural principles to interests of the countries.
S o the priority of reproduction criterion of an assessment of a condition of modern world currency system gives an opportunity to structure the concrete directions of reforming of its structural principles. I t is important to consider specifics of modern reproduction process. U
nder the influence of the financial globalisation overtaking process of globalisation of economy, the disproportion between development of real production and financial sector of economy is observed. It is promoted by a liberal conceptual basis of activity of the world financial market, world currency system.
To the author’s opinion, the most acceptable option of reforming of the currency system is based on interrelation of the two methods. First, reforming radical updating of its structural principles should be based on replacement of old principles with the new one. Second, observance of historical continuity principles which can be adapted for modern conditions in the world and correspond to interests of the majority of the countries. The interrelation of both methods — radical and adaptive — defines a conceptual approach to reforming of structural principles of world currency system.
The most probable way of a choice of a base standard of new world currency system is the multicurrency standard. Future reform of currency system should put an end to US dollar domination in global economy as the main currency. It can be legislatively fixed in the new currency system that the necessity for the development became obvious as a result of financial crisis.
Creation of currency zones can become one of corner principles of new currency system. In this regard, it is necessary to stimulate regional economic integration that is resulted in creation of currency zones with regional, freely used (reserve) currencies.
In the long term such zones can be:
rouble zone (Russia, Union State of Russia and Belarus, EurAsEC and separate CIS countries);
yuan or yen zone (China, Japan countries ASEAN and other countries of the Asian and Pacific region);
a currency zone of the countries of Latin America based on the countries — participants Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela) and the countries of the Andean group (Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador);
a zone of «gold dinar» — the Arab countries of the Middle East and other Muslim states (about 55 member countries of Islamic development bank).
Emergence of regional, freely used (reserve) currencies, along with US dollar and euro can considerably increase stability of a world financial system. US dollar weakening of the position as the main currency will be promoted by transition in trading operations between the countries in their national currencies.
To stabilize world currency system and prevent of currency speculation it is possible to consider the problem on establishment of the fixed exchange rates as very effective measure.
Other direction of reforming of world currency system is establishment of the fixed exchange rates. The fixed exchange rates can be established, first of all, for G8 countries, the BRIC countries and large trading powers.
As a radical measure for financial stabilization it is necessary to consider the problem on possible return to a gold standard, which would be real ensuring stability of national currencies of the majority of the countries in the world.
During the crisis serious defects in a world banking system, including in activity of the international financial organizations were appealed.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) is demanded a cardinal reforming, it was he basis for creation a global financial regulator.
The prevention and prevention of global and country financial crises, instead of the overdue help in their elimination should become the main function of IMF.
As alternative it is possible to consider possibility of creation of new international financial institution with similar problems of a global regulator.
To Basel committee, proceeding from lessons of present financial crisis, it is necessary to introduce essential amendments in fundamental principles and agreements in respect of toughening of standard and legal base of regulation and supervision of activity of bank institutes worldwide.
Monetary policy coordination between the Central banks of the leading countries of the world on development of uniform approaches to establishment of level of a rate of refinancing, a credit, course and anti-inflationary policy should become closer.
Bankruptcy of well-known commercial and investment banks in financial crisis called into question efficiency and objectivity of activity of many world rating agencies, urged to confirm officially a financial solvency and reliability, both financial institutions, and the sovereign states.
Obviously, these organizations also demand reforming, including increase in legal and criminal liability for results of their activity. Rating agencies should reduce, instead of increase financial risks.
It is appeared a necessity of creation of the new international organization regulating movement of the capital in global economy, including activity of the offshore centers, principles of cross-border merges and absorption, etc. Such organization can be created by analogy to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the basis of already existing international legal agreements in the investment sphere.
Table 3.
2.2
How has financial regulation changed 12 years after the financial crisis?
Prospects of formation of supranational currency was started to discuss long time ago. When developing the concept of supranational currency it is expedient to make use of experience of operational equipment of issue and SDR and ECU functioning as international monetary units which are issued in an electronic form, that are enlisted into special accounts of the respective countries and are used in the form of non-cash transfers. Their conditional cost decides on use of a method of a currency basket with a different set of currencies .
There are following practical initiatives concerning certain restrictions for participants of the financial market aimed to prevention of emergence of the crisis phenomena in a financial system and compensation of the public funds spent to maintenance of financial institutions, namely: — American Bill of financial reform; - tax on high-risky operations of banks; - the proposal of the U.S. President Barack Obama on restriction of the sizes of banks and extent of their inclusion in high-risky operations; - the third part of positions of Basel committee on bank supervision («Basel ІІІ») which was accepted in December, 2009 and implementation is planned since 2012.
If to analyse the offered approaches to regulation of a financial system, the most risks in case of realization of these innovations concerns owners of the bonds which emitted by finance corporations and haven’t been provided with the corresponding assets. Besides, according to analysts, the biggest concern is caused by the bill of financial reform as it provides basic change of relationship between the state and the largest finance companies in case of risk of bankruptcy. In particular, it is offered to refuse practice of rescue of problem finance corporations at the expense of means of taxpayers. It is predicted that such refusal can lead to emergence of substantial damages at owners of bonds, and also to decrease in level of trust by deterioration of credit ratings of the companies in process of deprivation of their system support from the governments. Risks for a bond market also cause offers on restriction of the sizes of banks and extent of their participation in highly risky operations as it can lead to reduction of volumes of release by banks of debts.
I ntroduction of «Basel ІІІ» also can entail reduction of the market of debt securities as hybrid securities, such as instruments of formation of a debt, have recently a great demand among those investors in a banking capital which have no appropriate level of trust to bank shares. H owever according to situation «Basel ІІІ» they aren’t included in the list of financial instruments at the expense of which the banking capital of the first level should be formed.
T he main content of the previous edition of the third part of positions of Basel committee on bank supervision, in particular, provides introduction of more rigid requirements to a form of the capital of the first level, namely: its structure should include only common shares and retained earnings. B esides, to banks requirements for creation in a phase of economic growth a reserves of the capital over a regulatory minimum will be applied and transition to formation of reserves for possible losses on the basis of model expected, instead of real losses is carried out. P lus it is provided to enter the minimum indicator of the liquidity, allowing to carry out an appraisal of possibility of continuation of activity of bank during the next few 30 days, and also an indicator of long-term liquidity (for one year).
Besides, the additional indicator of an assessment of capital sufficiency — a ratio of the capital and cumulative assets (minus reserves and without providing) will be entered.
Besides, in the conditions of globalisation and change of structure of money when electronic «e-money» dominates, it is necessary to unite effort of authorities of supervision of this process not only at state level, but also at interstate level. One of the offers is creation financial super regulator of G20 Group which can impose Tobin’s tax. Tobin’s tax will act as the tool of administrative and institutional financial infrastructure as now in the conditions of global liquidity for control of monetary transaction there are neither time barriers, nor space barriers.
As to introduction of a tax on speculative currency transactions (Tobin's classical tax), this idea t didn’t find the corresponding understanding and support at economists and financial analysts. Although taxation of short-term cash flows of different currencies can be considered as a peculiar mechanism of restriction of speculative operations and creation possibility for maneuver for the purpose of internal macroeconomic management. According to the experts, profit on introduction of a moderate tax can make hundreds billions dollars annually. Receipts will be still big if to expand base of the taxation and gradually to assess with this tax all financial operations in the regional and world markets.
This new tools of world currency system develops in the directions of introduction of system of regional currencies, creations of uniform world reserve currency or improvement of already existing.
Conclusion
International monetary systems are sets of internationally agreed rules, conventions and supporting institutions that facilitate international trade, cross border investment and generally the reallocation of capital between nation states. They provide means of payment acceptable between buyers and sellers of different nationality, including deferred payment. To operate successfully, they need to inspire confidence, to provide sufficient liquidity for fluctuating levels of trade and to provide means by which global imbalances can be corrected. The systems can grow organically as the collective result of numerous individual agreements between international economic actors spread over several decades.
Research of processes of transformation of the world currency systems is caused by the latest tendencies in development world financial architecture. Use as the world reserve currencies of national currency of one of the leading countries leads to a set contradictions in arrangement of the international financial and economic force.
World financial crisis of 2007;2009 revealed an IMF’s inefficiency as regulation institute and also aggravated an urgency of transformation operating currency system for the purpose of search and introduction of new instruments of regulation.
Search of new tools of world currency system develops in directions of introduction of system of regional currencies; creations uniform the world reserve currency or improvement of the already existing.
After several years of functioning of European financial system problems were appeared. Nowadays a number of prominent European and American politicians and economists noted that the euro zone is in serious crisis, than can lead to disintegration. Uniform currency was implemented, but anti-recessionary mechanisms were not developed.
There are 4 different possible future worlds, named:
financial regionalism (rapid power shifts and discordant financial policy)
re-engineered Western-centrism (slow power shifts and harmonized financial policy)
fragmented protectionism (slow power shifts, discordant financial policy)
rebalanced multilateralism (rapid power shifts, harmonized financial policy).
The structure of a world financial system has serious problems and it is required adjustments. Definition of prospects of further development of a world financial system starts with its structural problems and the most probable scenarios of its development. The allocated tendencies are directed on correction of the listed structural problems and can be basis of decision-making by subjects of a world financial system.
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