ΠΠ½Π½ΠΎΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡ.
ΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π±ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ
Consumer lending in the United States currently accounts for more than $ 3 trillion. At the same a new branch of consumer lending — «peer-to-peer» (P2P) lending is developing rapidly, for example, the volume of loans given of largest American P2P lending company Lending Club accounts for more than $ 4 billion. However, there are quite a few studies considering credit risk evaluation in P2P… Π§ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΡ Π΅ΡΡ >
ΠΠ½Π½ΠΎΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡ. ΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π±ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ (ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ°Ρ, ΠΊΡΡΡΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ, Π΄ΠΈΠΏΠ»ΠΎΠΌ, ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ)
ΠΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π±ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π² Π‘Π¨Π Π½Π° Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΠ΅Ρ Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ $ 3 ΡΡΠ»Π½., Π² ΡΡΠΎ ΠΆΠ΅ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π±ΡΡΠ½ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΠ²Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΡ «peer-to-peer» (P2P) ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ, ΡΠ°ΠΊ, Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ, ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΌ Π²ΡΠ΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ² ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½Π΅ΠΉΡΠ΅ΠΉ Π°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΊΠ°Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ P2P Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Lending Club ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΠ΅Ρ $ 4 ΠΌΠ»ΡΠ΄. ΠΠ΄Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎ Π½Π° Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ°Π²Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ²ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈ «peer-to-peer» ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ, ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Ρ Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ·ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΡΠ°Π²Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ ΡΡΠ°Π΄ΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ. Π’Π΅ΡΠΌΠΈΠ½ P2P ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΎΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π΅Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π»ΠΈΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΠ½Π»Π°ΠΉΠ½-ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ΅ Π±Π΅Π· ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡ ΡΡΠ°Π΄ΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ², ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ ΠΊΠ°ΠΊ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Π±Π°Π½ΠΊΠΈ. Π ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ± ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈ P2P ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ, Π² ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π±ΡΠ΄ΡΡ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΡ, ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·ΡΠ²Π°ΡΡΠΈΠ΅ Π²Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠ΅ Π½Π° ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΠΊ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. ΠΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ° ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ Π²Π΅ΡΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π΄Π΅ΡΠΎΠ»ΡΠ° Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠ° Π½Π° Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ , ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ Π°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΊΠ°Π½ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ P2P Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ Lending Club Π·Π° 2008;2011 Π³Π³. Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π±ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ±ΠΎΡΠ°, Π° ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡ Ρ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ. ΠΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡ Ρ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΡΠΎΠΈΡΡΡ Ρ ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π½Π° ΡΠ½Π΄ΠΎΠ³Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π½Π΅ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ², Π° ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ±Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ² Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠΎΠΌ. ΠΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π²ΡΡΡΡΠΏΠ°ΡΡ ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ, ΡΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π½Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠΎ Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠ°ΠΌ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π΄ΠΎΠ»Π³Π° ΠΊ Π΄ΠΎΡ ΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠ°. Π ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ, ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·ΡΠ²Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π²Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠ΅ Π½Π° ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΠΊ Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠ°, ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ°, ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΠ΅ Π² Π‘Π¨Π ΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ°Π½ΠΈΠΉ Lending Club Π² ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΡΠ°Π²ΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΡ, Π΄ΠΎΡ ΠΎΠ΄ Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠ°, ΡΡΠ°Π²ΠΊΠ° ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ, ΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Π½Π°Ρ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΠΠ°Π½ΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π‘Π¨Π Π½Π° ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΠΈ Π·Π°ΡΠ²ΠΊΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡ, ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΡΠΈΡ Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠ°, Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΡΠΏΠΎΠΌΡΠ½ΡΡΡΠΉ ΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π΅ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ±Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ² Π·Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΈΠΊΠΎΠΌ. ΠΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΡ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ², Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΡΡΠ° ΠΏΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ½Π΄ΠΎΠ³Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ° ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π±Π°Π½ΠΊΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠΊΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠΈΡΠΊ-ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π΄ΠΆΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π±ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΊΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ.
Abstract.
Consumer lending in the United States currently accounts for more than $ 3 trillion. At the same a new branch of consumer lending — «peer-to-peer» (P2P) lending is developing rapidly, for example, the volume of loans given of largest American P2P lending company Lending Club accounts for more than $ 4 billion. However, there are quite a few studies considering credit risk evaluation in P2P lending, special features of credit risk evaluation remains unexplored in this area. The term P2P lending describes the loan origination process between private individuals on online platforms, without using services of traditional financial intermediaries such as a commercial banks. This paper proposes a method for modeling credit risk in P2P lending. The result of the modeling will be a list of factors influencing credit risk in this type of lending. Credit risk evaluation is carried out by assessing the probability of borrower’s default based on data provided by American P2P lending company Lending Club during 2008;2011 time period. Modeling method implies constructing a binary choice model, particularly probit model and probit model with instrumental variables. Probit model with instrumental variables is constructed in order to adjust the model for endogeneity of some factors, revolving line utilization rate in particular. Instrumental variables are the initial rate, averaged over groups of credit risk and the borrowers' debt-to-income ratio. The main factors influencing the credit risk of the borrower are credit risk indicators used in the USA and by Lending Club in particular, the interest rate of the loan, the borrower’s income, discount rate set by the Central Bank of the United States at the moment of filing for a loan, the borrower’s credit history, and previously mentioned revolving line utilization rate. Results are applied to building investor portfolios based on group of criteria derived from the credit risk modeling. Also the experience of modeling endogeneity in the process of credit risk evaluation may be useful to commercial banks during the development of risk-management systems for consumer lending.